Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 1.319733 1.399097 1.481886 1.574902 1.676751 1.785166 1.909671
2026-01-18 1.197911 1.309600 1.431563 1.575447 1.741614 1.928788 2.157434
2026-01-25 1.135638 1.268565 1.418512 1.601821 1.822146 2.081427 2.414211
2026-02-01 1.058140 1.200358 1.364592 1.570699 1.825978 2.136682 2.551375
2026-02-08 0.988269 1.134768 1.307118 1.528015 1.808407 2.159375 2.643659
2026-02-15 0.942890 1.094856 1.276750 1.514548 1.823549 2.220992 2.787783
2026-02-22 0.910749 1.068644 1.260725 1.516616 1.856712 2.305949 2.968030
2026-03-01 0.870666 1.030169 1.226744 1.492651 1.852660 2.338851 3.075658
2026-03-08 0.826983 0.985021 1.181831 1.451362 1.821833 2.331395 3.121903
2026-03-15 0.799580 0.959301 1.160483 1.439767 1.830137 2.378219 3.251472
2026-03-22 0.788377 0.953749 1.164795 1.462433 1.886739 2.497224 3.501851
2026-03-29 0.769503 0.937263 1.153675 1.462902 1.911068 2.569417 3.683499
2026-04-05 0.756549 0.928779 1.153763 1.480218 1.962722 2.689454 3.962091
2026-04-12 0.738081 0.912259 1.142260 1.480485 1.989073 2.772339 4.187288
2026-04-19 0.729209 0.908168 1.147383 1.504546 2.052358 2.918222 4.541311
2026-04-26 0.703397 0.880007 1.117813 1.476148 2.032432 2.925881 4.640018
2026-05-03 0.675673 0.848349 1.082204 1.437162 1.993538 2.898732 4.668578
2026-05-10 0.658090 0.830164 1.064981 1.424852 1.996222 2.942059 4.839649
2026-05-17 0.645956 0.819137 1.057481 1.426742 2.021624 3.026135 5.102866
2026-05-24 0.627240 0.798301 1.035124 1.404827 2.006566 3.037130 5.214456
2026-05-31 0.604685 0.771469 1.003288 1.367034 1.963201 2.994095 5.204871
2026-06-07 0.591187 0.757141 0.989252 1.356413 1.964858 3.033335 5.380810
2026-06-14 0.587360 0.756450 0.995119 1.377172 2.020747 3.177347 5.813982